Main takeaways from the latest IPCC report

Good Morning,

Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The latest IPCC report draws findings from scientists in the fields of 1. physical science of climate change, 2. climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, and 3. mitigation. The latest report provides the most comprehensive and best available scientific assessment of climate change.

The over 8000-page report details grim pictures of scenarios where greenhouse gases (GHGs) continue to rise; it predicts loss of livelihoods, destruction of homes, and the fragmentation of communities. However, the IPCC report also spurs hope as it highlights viable pathways to avoid the intensifying risks.

Here are the main takeaways from the latest IPCC report summarized:

It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Human-induced global warming is currently at 1.1 °C; it already causes sea level rise, extreme weather events, and sea ice loss. Additional warming will increase the magnitude of these changes and heighten the probability of crossing dangerous tipping points – such as the thawing of the permafrost – which can trigger self-amplifying feedbacks that further increase global warming.

Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected. Every fraction of a degree of warming will escalate these risks; even limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C is not safe for all. About half of the population currently contends with severe water scarcity for at least one month per year; also, higher temperatures enable the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria. Regarding food production, agricultural productivity has improved in middle and low latitudes, while productivity growth has shrunk by a third in Africa during the last 60 years.

More financing is needed. Adaptation measures that build resilience towards the intensifying risks need more financing. Currently, the resilience-building efforts are largely small-scale, reactive and incremental, with most focusing on immediate impacts or near-term risks. The public and private finance flows for fossil fuels today far surpass those directed toward climate mitigation and adaptation. Although the annual public and private climate finance has risen by upwards of 60% since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, much more is still required to achieve global climate change goals.

Losses and damages: some climate impacts have already gotten so severe that they cannot be adapted. For instance, coral reef systems that once supported coastal communities' livelihoods and food security experience widespread mortality in the tropics. Also, rising sea levels have forced low-lying neighborhoods to move to higher ground and abandon cultural sites. The report stresses that urgent action is needed to avert, minimize and address these losses and damages.

The phasing out of fossil fuels must be faster. Burning fossil fuels is the number one cause of the climate crisis. In pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C, a net 510 GtCO2 can be emitted before the emissions reach net zero in the early 2050s. However, the future carbon dioxide emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone are estimated to be 850 GtCO2. The report suggests various strategies to change this pathway and help avoid locking in these emissions. These include retiring existing fossil fuel infrastructure, canceling new projects, retrofitting fossil-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and scaling up renewable energy sources like solar and wind – currently cheaper options than fossil fuels in many regions.

Carbon removal is essential to prevent the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The IPCC report finds that all pathways limiting the warming to 1.5 °C depend on some quantity of carbon removal. These approaches encompass natural solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soil, and more nascent technologies that pull carbon dioxide directly from the air. The amount of carbon removal required depends on how quickly we reduce GHG emissions across other systems and the extent to which climate targets are overshoot.

A just transition is needed. Climate change, the mitigation and adaptation efforts risk exacerbating global inequity. Households with incomes in the top 10% emit upwards of 45% of the global GHGs, yet effects of climate change hit poorer and historically marginalized communities the hardest. In several Global South countries, conflicts, existing inequalities, and development challenges heighten sensitivity to climate hazards and limit communities’ capacity to adapt. Also, mitigation efforts risk increasing global inequity. For instance, retiring coal-fired power plants may displace workers, harm local economies, and reconfigure the social fabric of communities in the Global South. Another exapmple are inappropriately implemented efforts to halt deforestation that could heighten poverty and intensify food insecurity. The IPCC report suggests that reconfiguring social protection programs to include adaptation, for example, can reduce communities’ vulnerability to a wide range of future climate impacts while strengthening justice and equity. Also, policymakers can design mitigation strategies to better distribute the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. The Loss and Damage Fund for Vulnerable countries is another example of an instrument to advance climate justice and the just transition.

References:  IPCC, WRI

Let's jump into this week's major headlines.

EU's Carbon Allowance (ETS) price development

UK's Carbon Allowance (ETS) price development

EUobserver | EU approves 2035 phaseout of polluting cars and vans. EU environment ministers on Tuesday agreed on a 2035 phase-out of combustion engine cars, concluding a controversial leg of negotiations with Germany. The agreement will ban the sale of carbon-emitting cars after 2035 and requires car producers to achieve 55 percent CO2 emission reduction from 2030 to 2034 compared to 2021.

Euronews | Elderly Swiss women to make history in Europe’s top human rights court. A group of Swiss women are taking their government to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) court over climate change. With an average age of 73, they say the country’s climate policies are putting their health - and human rights - at risk.

Aljazeera | In addition to Switzerland, the French government faces a historic climate case. The case against France was brought by Damien Careme, a former mayor of Grande-Synthe, a suburb of Dunkirk in northern France. He alleges the central government has failed to meet its obligation to protect life by taking insufficient steps to prevent climate change.

Reuters | Families dig for missing in Ecuador landslide. The death toll of the catastrophe is least 11, with about 67 still missing. The landslide hit in the Andean province of Chimborazo on Sunday night after heavy rains.

UN | New agenda sets sail with bold action as UN Water Conference closes. The UN 2023 Water Conference closed on Friday with the adoption of the Water Action Agenda, a “milestone” action plan containing almost 700 commitments to protect “humanity’s most precious global common good”.

Bloomberg | Carbon offset gatekeepers are failing to stop junk credits. A study covering almost 300 carbon offset projects found that the industry’s top registries have consistently allowed developers to claim far more climate-saving benefits than justified.

BBC | The Youth in the Pacific push for climate change decision at world’s top court. The International Court of Justice is about to be asked to decide on individual countries' obligations to fight rising temperatures. The UN has to approve the request for this legal opinion, brought by Vanuatu on behalf of the scholars. The effort is likely to succeed as it's being backed by about 120 countries.

Reuters | Protest party BoerBurgerBeweging scored a big win in the Dutch provincial elections that determine the make-up of the Senate. The government aims to cut nitrogen emissions in half by 2030, as relatively large numbers of livestock and heavy use of fertilizers have led to levels of nitrogen oxides in the soil and water that violate European Union regulations. The BBB says the problem has been exaggerated and that proposed solutions are unfairly balanced against farmers, leading to the closure of many farms and food production shortages.

Yle | Rwandese import ban on used clothing has stimulated the country's domestic fashion industry, exports. On the contrary, banning the trade of imported used clothing has increased illegal importing and the consumption of Chinese fast fashion.

Yle | EU directive on energy efficiency could risk Finland's climate neutrality target. In the directive, the new target for Finnish energy end use is 241 TWh by 2030, 50 TWh less than the current consumption. The Finnish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment sees that investments in green transition will increase energy consumption in the upcoming years. The directive thus threatens to achieve the climate neutrality target of 2035.

HS | Forestry Ltd (Metsähallitus) watered down the conservation of two forests in Southern Finland. The conservation package, publicized in February, has thus less naturally valuable areas than the government had initially planned. Most of the protected forest area currently resides in Northern Finland, where forest growth is slower, and thus forestry is less lucrative than in the Southern parts of Finland.

Kauppalehti | The first-ever Finnish climate lawsuit proceeds in the Supreme Administrative Court. The lawsuit, filed by Greenpeace and the Finnish Association for Nature, is about whether the Marin administration neglected its climate responsibility.

ATL | Sweden opposes the EU Lulucf regulation. The Swedish government believes the EU law reform risks hitting Swedish forestry, agriculture, and the green transition; the country voted against the legislative proposal. However, the Eu energy ministers voted yes to the proposal on Tuesday.

Yle | Swedish ore prospecting company filed a reservation in Torronsuu national park – a law reform prohibiting such operation in national parks takes effect in June. Nevertheless, the Finnish Safety and Chemicals Agency (Tukes) approved the Stedle Exploration AB reservation, granting the company a priority for an ore prospecting permit but does not automatically allow prospecting, mining, or quarrying.

HS | Finnair advertising highlights the use of renewables but uses them only marginally. Last year only 0,2 % of the aviation company's fuel consumption was from renewable sources.

Etla | Etla study: Green Transition will have more effects on the Finnish economy than climate change. The changing climate is expected to affect more severely on foreign economies. For its part, this will also reflect on the Finnish economy.

Aktuell Hållbarhet | Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) launched a new map service to facilitate climate adaptation in Sweden. Kustdataportalen contains data collected by authorities and universities about the Swedish coasts.

Reuters | Norway backs Brazil's efforts to draw donors to Amazon Fund. Norway will help Brazil to attract additional donor countries for the Amazon Fund which it helped to set up to fight deforestation and spur sustainable development. The fund was originally launched in 2009, but it was frozen in 2019 by former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. The current government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva re-activated the fund on day one of his term in office in January.

Reuters | Norway's sovereign wealth fund acquires 16.6% stake in German offshore wind farm. Norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, one of the world's largest investors, said on Thursday it had agreed to buy a 16.6% stake in the 960 megawatt He Dreiht offshore wind farm project in the German North Sea.

Tekniikka&Talous | World's first carbon-negative concrete mixing plant established in Hollola. The pilot project Carbonade Oy implements CO2 utilizing and storage technology developed by VTT. The technology could reduce the carbon footprint of concrete production significantly – or even make the process carbon negative.

STT | A-Insinöörit Oy has developed a measurement to calculate their planners' carbon handprint, the positive environmental effect. This measure considers the consultants' and planners' work in construction and infrastructure, making the sustainable effects more visible.

Fortum | Fortum and Metsä Group to jointly explore processing wood-based carbon dioxide with green hydrogen.

EEA | Finnish Leena Ylä-Mononen selected as the next Executive Director of the European Environment Agency. Mononen currently holds the position of Director General at the Finnish Ministry of the Environment.

Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields. Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, Aalto University researchers estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980–2009. The results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, the study found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, the study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production. (Nature Scientific Reports)

Cultivated meat company Vow created a meatball from mammoth cells. The project aims to demonstrate the potential of meat grown from cells, without the slaughter of animals, and to highlight the link between large-scale livestock production and the destruction of wildlife and the climate crisis. The company has also investigated the potential of more than 50 species, including alpaca, buffalo, crocodile, kangaroo, peacocks and different types of fish. (The Guardian, Vow)

New Giant Spider Species was found in Australia. Australian researchers have discovered a super-sized species of trapdoor spiders found only in Queensland. The females of this rare species, Euoplos dignitas can live for over 20 years in the wild and grow up to 5cm long - large in trapdoor spider terms. The males grow up to 3cm. Unfortunately, much of its habitat has been lost due to land clearing, making it likely to be an endangered species, scientists said. (BBC)

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